A NOM/DAMU-ite who went by the handle “Colluvium” put together a spreadsheet with membership statistics as they were presented in General Conference every year since 1973. He didn’t weigh in with the numbers this year, because he’s been really busy recently. However, the data were still available in spreadsheet form, so with his permission I downloaded it and updated it with what was presented Saturday. I’m assuming that the aggregated data are correct. I’ve created a link to the spreadsheet and the charts on my personal web site.
The good news: for almost all measurements, this was an up year. The only actual declines are in percent ward growth (# of new wards divided by last year’s number of wards) and increase in children of record (fewer babies were blessed this year than last). Converts per member, overall growth per member ((converts+babies)/# of members), converts per missionary, # of missionaries, stake growth, and the raw number of stakes and wards increased more this year than they did last year. The number of members/ward is slightly (neglibly) higher than last year, as well.
I added a chart that hadn’t been done before, showing the raw change in the number of convert baptisms from one year to another. I don’t know if there’s anything meaningful about the number or not, but the change in the number of convert baptisms between 2006 and 2005 is the highest it’s been since 1993. Those particular numbers are really erratic, with changes from year to year as high as 62,000 (1989) and as low as -40,000 (2003).
The bad news: The growth rate of wards and stakes has been on a persistent downward trend since 1995. The growth rate of wards and stakes has been below 2% since 1999. The rate for the last three years has been higher than the five years before, but the growth rate of wards is just half what it was in 1974, the first year for which I have the values available. For stakes, it’s one third the 1974 rate.
The growth rate of members follows the growth rate of wards and stakes in the same period. The rate slide can arguably be shown to have begun in 1989. There were upticks in the rate in 1993 and 1996, but the rate of growth now (convert baptisms + children of record) is just over half what it was in 1989 - 2.85% vs. 5.40%.
I’m not a statistician by any stretch of the imagination. There may be a better (or worse) story in these numbers. The numbers are good this year. In another few years, we’ll be able to tell if this is the reversal of the overall trend, or just another uptick in the overall downward slope.
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